بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
The Armed Fighting in Sudan and its Repercussions on the Political Conflicts
Sky News Arabia published on its website that America had evacuated its diplomats on Sunday morning 23/4/2023: US President Joe Biden announced, on Sunday morning, the evacuation of his country’s diplomats from Sudan, which has been witnessing violent clashes for days... Biden said in a statement: “Today, on my orders, the United States military conducted an operation to extract US government personnel from Khartoum.”
Arabi 21 had also published on its website on 23/4/2023, “The Sudanese army did not comment on the evacuation of US diplomats, but it said in a previous statement that the United States, Britain, France and China will evacuate diplomats and other nationals from Khartoum, adding that it is not "expected to start immediately."
Does this evacuation indicate that the fighting will continue? What is the explanation for this, especially since Al-Burhan and Hemedti are American agents? Or is it that one of them has become inclined towards Britain and Europe, hence this infighting? And, what is the expected solution at the end of this infighting? Thank you.
In order to clarify the answer, we review the events since the constitutional document and the military coup against it:
First: The constitutional document stage:
1- America’s agents (the military council) were bound by what was called the “constitutional document” with British and European agents (the civilian component), that document that was signed between the two sides on 17/8/2019, and then its dates were amended after the Juba agreement signed on 3/10/2020, and the period became 51 months, and then civilians start in November 2021... And because this document removes many centers of power from the military component to the civilian component, and this is what does not satisfy Al-Burhan and Hemedti, and for this, about two months before the civilian component takes over the centers of power mentioned in the document it was announced that a coup attempt had been discovered, and by whom? From one of their men, five days after his return from medical treatment: [The Sudanese Minister of Defense, Lieutenant General Yassin Ibrahim, announced the thwarting of a coup attempt led by Major General Abdel-Baqi Bakrawi, along with 22 other officers of various ranks, non-commissioned officers and soldiers. (BBC 21/9/2021)].
2- By scrutinizing this coup attempt, we find that it is fabricated, because (the leader of that coup attempt had accompanied, in his military service, Al-Burhan in Bahr Al-Jabal operations and Zamil Shams Al-Din Kabbashi in West Darfur. (Arabi 21, 22/9/2021) and these are the heads of the military leadership in the Sudanese Army and the Sovereignty Council, in the sense that this man was close and trusted to America's top agents in the army leadership, and therefore his coup attempt is not real, but it is something that was arranged between him and the leadership for the purposes of arranging the government before the time for the supposed handover of the leadership of the Sovereignty Council to civilians comes. As a result, [the Sudanese army arrested Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok, most of his government members, and many officials and workers in the media sector, today, Monday, amid talk of a military coup being implemented. (Al-Jazeera 25/10/2021)], and the arrested Hamdok's office announced [what happened represents dismemberment of the constitutional document and a complete coup against the gains of the revolution. (Al Jazeera 25/10/2021)].
3- Thus, it becomes clear that the agreement concluded in 2019 between civilians in the forces of freedom and change and the military council was a trap set by the military council, and America behind it, for these forces by making the presidency of the Sovereignty Council first for the military and second for civilians. So, the forces for freedom and change were deluded that they would be handed over the presidency of the council, i.e., the rule of Sudan after the first 21 months. If this were possible, the British and European agents would have been able to make sweeping changes affecting the army leadership and financing it in a way that threatens American influence in Sudan; this America does not allow.
After that, it spread among the people that the issue of the coup was something that was orchestrated at night by Al-Burhan and Hemedti to eliminate the constitutional document... Then people moved in the streets, some with sincerity and others motivated by the civil component, and it continued for days but even months.
Second: The Framework Agreement stage:
After the exposure of the previous coup plan and the spread of movements in the streets... another stage began to deceive the civilian component, as discussions began between the military and civilian components until the framework agreement was signed on 5/12/2022, and it came in an Answer to Question on 11/12/2022: (In the second part of the agreement, the agreement stipulates that “the transitional authority will be handed over to a full civilian authority ... and the state has a president with honorary duties ... then an executive level, headed by a civilian prime minister chosen by the signatories to the agreement, in addition to a legislative council and another for security. The defense is headed by the prime minister and includes the leaders of the regular services and armed struggle movements that signed the Juba Peace Treaty. It stipulates that: “The army distances itself from politics and the practice of economic, commercial, and investment activities, and that the Rapid Support Forces and the Armed Movement Forces are integrated into the army according to arrangements to be agreed upon later in the Merger and Demobilization Commission within a security and military reform plan etc.”). And the agreement required its final signing on 6/4/2023 and the formation of the civil government on 11/4/2023, and here things continued as follows:
1- On the same day, 6/4/2023, when the transitional constitution was supposed to be signed, and 5 days before the formation of the transitional government, 11/4/2023, the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Molly Phee, made a phone call with Hemedti and the spokesman for the political process, Khalid Omar Yousif. [Molly called both the Vice-President of the Sovereignty Council, the Commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Hemedti and the spokesman for the political process, Khalid Omar, days after she contacted the President of the Sovereignty Council and the Army Commander, Al-Burhan. (Sudan Tribune 6/4/2023)].
2- The Arab Post published on its website on 19/4/2023, quoting the American newspaper, The New York Times, on Wednesday, 19/4/2023, in the latest information about the first hours of the clashes on 15/4/2023: [the night of Friday, April 14, witnessed a negotiation session between the two parties, Al-Burhan and Hemedti in the presence of foreign envoys, during which promises were made, and concessions extracted, before they had dinner together at the home of a senior military commander (Arabic Post, 19/4/2023)].
3- After that, the sudden violent clashes erupted on Saturday,15/4/2023, between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, which represent a new blow to hopes for the transfer of power to civilians, i.e. the pro-British civilian forces. Thus, the ongoing political conflict in Sudan shifted between the pro-American military component and the pro-British civilian component, turned to the military field between Al-Burhan and Hemedti! We said in the Answer to Question on 19/3/2023:
[Then the military component (Al-Burhan and Hemedti) controls the postponement of implementation under the pretext of their lack of agreement on the merging (of forces). This is until the conditions and atmosphere become suitable for amending the agreement and purifying it from any actual influence in it for the civilian component. This is the meaning of the word “soon” contained in Al-Burhan’s statement: [that the country is moving in the way to establish civil rule, it is likely that the civil government will be formed “soon”. (Al-Ittihad, 19/3/2023)]. So, the Framework Agreement will be implemented in accordance with the requirements of the military component, and then it will be “soon” whether it is the earliest implementation date or after! And if this did was not made possible to them, then it is not possible to rule out an attempt to cancel the framework agreement by fabricating the difficulty of integrating the Rapid Support Forces with the army because Al-Burhan and Hemedti do not agree, i.e., repeating the scenario of canceling the constitutional document with a new method of output…”)] End quote from the Answer to Question.
4- The opposition political forces began to appeal to the army and the Rapid Support Forces to stop the fighting between the two parties, noting that these forces were against the army and against the Rapid Support Forces. So, it called them to stop the fighting between the two parties, and they forgot their political demands to keep the two parties away from political life and to form a civil government, as what they were calling for: “A statement by the Forces of Freedom and Change called on the Central Council, the leadership of the Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, to make wisdom prevail, stop military confrontations immediately, and return to the negotiating table, and that the option to resolve outstanding issues is to address them peacefully through peaceful solutions”. (Al-Jazeera 16/4/2023). Thus, the opposition was replaced by another opposition, so the political opposition became not an opposition force, but rather a reconciliation force between the army leadership and the artificial opposition, the Rapid Support Command!
5- A statement by the US State Department said, "Blinken stressed the urgent need to reach a cease-fire to allow the delivery of humanitarian aid to those affected by the fighting.” (Sky News 18/4/2023). He wants a cease-fire, not an end to the fighting. The two sides responded immediately to the American call. The army announced, through a member of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, Shams al-Din Kabbashi, that (“The Sovereignty Council agreed to a 24-hour cease-fire starting from Tuesday evening.” (Al-Arabiya 18/4/2023). The Rapid Support Forces agreed to a truce requested by America through its Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken from both sides, its statement said: “Based on the contact with Mr. Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, and the efforts of brotherly and friendly countries that called for a cease-fire in order to open safe paths for the crossing of civilians and the evacuation of the wounded, we announce on our part the approval of the proposed cease-fire for 24 hours.” (Sudanese Ar-Rakouba, 18/4/2023) This proves that Al-Burhan and Hemedti follow the Americans and quickly implement America's orders. And if they asked them to stop the fighting completely and seriously, they would stop it. But they asked them for a truce for 24 hours. This means that they allowe them to continue the fighting.
6- On 19/4/2023, Saudi Arabia's Asharq Al-Awsat quoted a spokesperson for the US State Department, who asked not to be named, as saying: “The State Department has established a Sudan Military Conflict Task Force to oversee the Department’s planning, management, and logistics related to events in Sudan… Our focus now is on achieving an immediate ceasefire," he added. And he said: “We continue to pressure the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces to establish a 24-hour cease-fire, and we call on both of them to ensure that all forces adhere to it.” (Asharq Al-Awsat, 19/4/2023) which confirms that the Americans are the ones managing the conflict between both parties, and they do not want to stop it completely now until they gain their objectives from it.
7- Biden said in a statement: “Today, on my orders, the United States military conducted an operation to extract US government personnel from Khartoum,” Biden also thanked Djibouti, Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia, praising their "critical assistance for the success of our operation"... And the Rapid Support Forces, one of the two parties to the conflict in Sudan, announced earlier Sunday morning the evacuation of American diplomats and their families from the American embassy in Khartoum, in coordination with the United States. Later, CNN revealed that "all American diplomats and their family members on their way safely out of Sudan, on board US military aircraft.” It added, “The US embassy in Khartoum was closed with the departure of the diplomats.” (Sky News Arabia, 23/4/2023) and Arabi 21 quoted on 23/4/2023 a statement on its website. US President Joe Biden ordered the evacuation and it added: (The Sudanese army did not comment on the evacuation of American diplomats, but it said in a previous statement that the United States, Britain, France and China would evacuate diplomats and other nationals from Khartoum, adding that it “expects to start that immediately”) and all this is to give a picture of the escalation of fighting.
8- A 72-hour truce announced by America, starting on Tuesday night 25/4/2023: [Blinken said in a statement, "After intense negotiations over the past 48 hours, the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces agreed to implement a nationwide ceasefire starting at midnight April 24, and it will last for 72 hours.” He added, “During this period, the United States urges the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces to immediately and fully adhere to the ceasefire.” (Al-Jazeera Mubasher, 25/4/2023)].
By contemplating the events of the Framework Agreement phase, it becomes clear that America controls the truce, manages the events, and sparks military conflict between its two agents. These clashes taking place today between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces sharply transfer the political conflicts in Sudan to a new arena, an arena drawn by America to keep the British and European agents away from the center of effective governance, and then America controls its parties. It does not care about the number of dead and wounded, nor does it care about the destruction of Sudan and its military mechanisms. This is the last thing America thinks about, what is important for it is to be in control in Sudan, so that Britain and Europe do not dispute it.
Third: As for whether the British and Europe stand behind Hemedti’s attempt to overthrow Al-Burhan, this is unlikely, and the following points indicate that:
1- America’s agents in the region were in contact with both sides of the conflict, and if America knew that Hemedti had sided with the British and the Europeans, it would have pushed its agents to support the Sudanese army as a legitimate national military institution and called for the Rapid Support Forces to settle the issue of its legitimacy with the army, that is, it would have stripped it of legitimacy. Saudi Arabia was in contact with the two parties, and today Al-Jazeera Channel quoted the Egyptian Foreign Minister as saying that he was in contact with the two parties in Sudan (Al-Burhan and Hemedti).
2- The US Secretary of State was communicating with the two parties and calling for a truce [the commander of the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, said in a series of tweets, "We are waiting for further discussions with the US Secretary of State on ways to address these violations." (Al Jazeera Net, 18/4/2023)]. And (the truce was reached after the US Secretary of State contacted the army commander, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), and asked them for a humanitarian truce. (Al-Jazeera Net, 18/4/2023)
3- If the Rapid Support Forces were carrying out a coup in favour of the Europeans, the Forces of Freedom and Change would have been on their side, especially since they are calling morning and evening for the departure of the military and calling for civil rule, meaning that they openly oppose the army and its leader Al-Burhan and this is before the outbreak of the current clashes. But these forces call for an immediate cease-fire, that is, they were not bias, despite Hemedti's noise that democracy is what prompted the Burhan war. [The forces of freedom and change in Sudan called on the army and Rapid Support Forces leaders to immediately stop military confrontations and return to the negotiating tables. (Al-Sharq Newspaper, 16/4/2023)].
From this it is clear that the forces affiliated with Europe in Sudan were shocked by these clashes and that they did not announce their support for one party against another. Hence, there are no doubts about Hemedti's inclination towards the British, but rather he remains, like Al-Burhan, an agent of America.
Fourth: The conclusion is:
1- These clashes taking place today between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces are clashes that America is running, in combat and truce, in order to sharply transfer the political conflicts in Sudan to a new arena, an arena drawn by America to keep the British agents away.and the Europeans from the center of the conflict, and then America controls its parties. It is not concerned about the number of dead and wounded, nor does it care about the destruction of Sudan and its military mechanisms.
2- America wants to continue its influence in Sudan without Europe contesting with it in that, and it has a precedent in that, as its influence lasted for about 30 years during the era of Al-Bashir... and when it wanted to dispense with him, it brought men who were established by him like Hemedti and those who worked with him like Al-Burhan. When the men of Britain of the Freedom and Change moved against the men of America, it deceived them because of their stupidity, by the constitutional document and later by the Framework Agreement.
3- As for was Britain able to access one of the two men, Hemedti, and for that reason the military clash took place? There are no indications, rather on the contrary, as the two men obeyed America's orders, as we think is correct and explained above.
4- As for what is expected of the continuation of this clash and its outcome, as we mentioned, its purpose was to exclude Britain’s agents (the civil component of Freedom and Change and others), and although this was done or almost, but the precedent of the coup against the constitutional document and its exposure to the people makes America and its collaborators this time prolong the conflict to some extent, but out of hit-and-run rather than decisiveness, in order to achieve one of the following:
a- If it considers that it is best for it to conclude a new agreement between its two agents, Al-Burhan and Hemedti, it will conclude it, and then push back the Framework Agreement with the forces affiliated with the Europeans. those forces will become marginal in front of the American agents who are drawing a new reality in Sudan.
b- And if it is not possible to push back the pro-European forces, then America does not care about dividing Sudan after it stripped the south from it, so it will strip the West and Darfur and Hemedti will govern it, as his control in those areas is preponderant, especially since he controls the gold mine there.
c- If those forces affiliated with the Europeans lined up behind one of America's agents (Hemedti, for example) as a matter of maneuvering... America may ask this agent to back down and accept the control of the other agent in order for the military to lead in Sudan to thwart that alignment.
Fifth: Thus, it becomes clear that the agents, like their masters, do not care about the affairs of the people and their security. They only care about sitting on the seats of power and the masters manage them. So, they rose up and terrified people's security in the last ten days of Ramadan, at a time when people were waiting for the Eid to exchange greetings and visits. So, the criminal killers shed blood, wreaked havoc, confined people to their homes and disrupted their work. And all of this is to please the enemies of Allah, His Messenger, and the believers. People have no choice but to reject both sides; the agents of America and the agents of Britain, and work to overthrow them and support the sincere and aware of the sons of Sudan, the members of Hizb ut Tahrir who carry the project of the Khilafah Rashidah (rightly-guided Caliphate) state on the method of the Prophethood, enjoining good and forbidding evil, they will save the country from all the agents, revive it and protect it from fragmentation and partition, and then may Allah send His mercy on them and honour them.
[وَالْمُؤْمِنُونَ وَالْمُؤْمِنَاتُ بَعْضُهُمْ أَوْلِيَاءُ بَعْضٍ يَأْمُرُونَ بِالْمَعْرُوفِ وَيَنْهَوْنَ عَنِ الْمُنْكَرِ وَيُقِيمُونَ الصَّلَاةَ وَيُؤْتُونَ الزَّكَاةَ وَيُطِيعُونَ اللهَ وَرَسُولَهُ أُولَئِكَ سَيَرْحَمُهُمُ اللهُ إِنَّ اللهَ عَزِيزٌ حَكِيمٌ]
“The believing men and believing women are allies of one another. They enjoin what is right and forbid what is wrong and establish prayer and give zakāh and obey Allah and His Messenger. Those - Allah will have mercy upon them. Indeed, Allah is Exalted in Might and Wise” [At-Tawba: 71]
5 Shawwal 1444 AH
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