بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Answer to Question
US Congress Elections
The Republican Party secured control, with a small majority, over the US House of Representatives which is made up of 435 seats. [“It won at least 218 seats, according to estimates by CBS News, the BBC partner in the United States.” (BBC, November 17, 2022)]. As for the Democrats, they celebrated [“Sunday that the party retained a simple majority in the US Senate,” (Al-Jazeera, November 14, 2022)]. The local media in most countries of the world were broadcasting the news of the US Congress’ elections (House of Representatives and Senate). How could we understand that a domestic event in America - not much attention is paid to their counterparts in other countries - became a major event around the world? Or is it America that wants its agents and dependents to give attention to its internal events in order to make it an international issue similar to Britain, whose agents’ media broadcast trivial news about its kings, their marriages, their children, and so on? Or is it that these elections have a real impact around the world?
Yes, Britain call upon its agents and dependents to pay attention to trivial matters in Britain out of the deep and great sense of magnificence of the English, as if what was called in the past, the empire on which the sun never sets, still exists up till this day. In the case of Britain, this is a matter of reviving its ancient sense of greatness, but as for America, the matter is completely different. To clarify this, we state the following:
1- To understand the impact of US internal events on the international arena, we refer to what US President Biden said that it should be noted that Russia waited for the results of the US Congress elections before beginning its withdrawal from Kherson (Al-Jazeera, November 11, 2022). We also refer to Saudi Arabia's decision through OPEC Plus to reduce oil production by two million barrels per day and as a result the prices rose globally and the American citizen is outraged over fuel prices locally, thus the American citizen refrained from electing Democrats and instead elected Republicans. It is not yet possible to confirm whether China's closures under the pretext of Coronavirus are for the real reasons or as a matter of electoral support for President Biden's party, and this is what the coming days will reveal. In summary, the midterm elections of November 8, 2022 represented a major international event. It is even enough to say that any tremor that occurs within America can reverberate in other regions around the world. Therefore, the importance of these US elections internationally should not be underestimated, and what makes this crucial is that the term of former President Trump’s administration revealed a very sharp division within America, among the people, government, parties, and financial companies. For all this, the world was watching what could result from the US Congress elections.
2- In the most famous and largest capitalist country in the world, America, the political system has made competition exclusively between two parties, each of which relies on capitalist companies to win the elections! A clear indication that the one who decides is the giant capitalist companies and not the people, is that the companies’ spendings on supporting candidates for the Congressional elections in both houses. This year was about $17 billion in election spending. [The United States appears on all occasions to present the paradoxical model. At a time when the country suffers from historical inflation, spendings on midterm elections propaganda hit a high record. An American organization revealed a record of the cost of the midterm elections in the United States for the year 2022, which exceeded $16.7 billion dollars. (Sky News Arabia, November 13, 2022)] Which is equivalent to the budget of some African countries and others. It is clear that the capitalists in America, the owners of large companies, are the ones who direct the American people to elect one and not to elect the other, for the American elections outwardly, is that sovereignty belongs to the people, but internally it is that sovereignty is for the major companies that can spend hundreds of millions of dollars to support a specific candidate, until it was said that politicians in America choose their voters, not the other way around. The proof for this is that whoever raises the slogan of freedom of abortion wants an audience of women to elect him, and whoever raises the slogan of defending immigration targets minorities to elect him, and whoever raises racist slogans targets white Americans to elect him, and so on.
3- The control of money and companies has always been the case in America, but the term of former President Trump's administration has revealed sharp changes taking place inside America, and these changes were most prominently titled that the intense competition between major companies is no longer a sporting competition as it was in the past, but is heating up. And its temperature increased until it reached or almost reached a boiling point when the greed of the capitalists did not allow for peaceful coexistence in light of the conflicting interests of these capitalists. The intense capitalist competition between companies moved to a bone breaking situation among politicians representing the interests of those companies, and in general, the capitalists were divided into two groups so far: A section dominated by technology companies and represented by the US Democratic Party, and another section dominated by oil and energy companies and represented by the US Republican Party. These two sections are expected for further division, according to the interests of the major companies that stand behind this or that, and according to the American state in which the interests of those companies are based. It should be noted that the American oil and energy companies represented for decades as the jewel of American capitalism where they had great influence inside America and abroad. The oil wars and the policies of extending pipelines between countries and building giant tankers brought these companies great influence and great profits. However in the past two decades, technology companies emerged, their capital skyrocketed until the capital of some of them exceeded, in less than two decades, the capital of some oil and energy companies that had accumulated over nearly a century. And with the increase in the severity of this problem, which increased exponentially during the Coronavirus period, as the lockdown policy deprived oil companies of vast profits, and the price of oil sometimes reached negative, while the booms of technology companies increased when people sat in their homes, communicating with each other and performing their work through communication and computer devices. Commercial and financial transactions increased through these companies, such as the American company Amazon which controlled many sectors of trade and turned it into electronic commerce and home delivery of goods. These huge leaps coincided with the arrival of the Trump administration, and here the fire of conflict between these losing and profitable major companies flared up until the intensity reached attempts to break each other's bones. And because these companies implement what they want through politicians, these politicians have sharply divided.
4- The division has increased in the US, where states controlled by Democrats legislated laws against oil companies, such as California issued a zero-emissions policy and the reliance entirely on electric cars by 2035. While states such as Texas, which is controlled by Republicans and supported by the oil companies that control the state, included green industrial companies i.e. those that adopt a policy of reducing emissions, on their blacklist. The legitimacy of the division increased when Republican-controlled states began dividing electoral districts and issuing laws to ensure their control over the state in any upcoming elections, such as laws that restrict voting by mail, which is favored by Democrat supporters. While the states controlled by the Democrats began dividing the electoral districts and issuing laws such as facilitating voting by mail to ensure that the Republicans do not enter these states, not to mention the cultural division such as the inclusion of the culture of "race theory" in the school curricula in the states controlled by the Republicans and the spread of a culture against immigration and immigrants. On the other hand, the culture of freedom of abortion is spread in the states controlled by Democrats, as it is against the conservative view of Republicans, as well as the culture of welcoming immigrants. Thus, the US was divided into red states controlled by the Republicans, dominated by white Americans, and blue states controlled by the Democrats, who brought together most of the immigrant communities with them. Whereas the division moved to take on an ethnic figure, and this division became permanent in an increasing degree, and politicians in the states leaned towards maximizing controversial issues!
5- America, along with the world’s governments, observed the results of the midterm elections for the US Congress, according to its interests. On one hand, Russia was waiting for the “Trump group” to hinder, upon their victory in these elections, the large American support provided by the Biden administration to Ukraine. And Europe, especially Germany, fears the influence of the Trump group on America's position with Europe to repel Russia's expansionist tendencies. Perhaps China also feared the impact of America's recklessness against China or the nuclear armament of South Korea and Japan. Likewise, America’s agents in the Islamic region, some of whom, like Saudi Arabia, see that the Trump group is better for them than the “Biden group,” while others see the opposite. It is true that these are not presidential elections but they were described as presidential, not to mention being a great indicator of the upcoming presidential elections in 2024. Due to high inflation in America, including the rise in fuel prices, a favorable atmosphere prevailed for the Republican Party to sweep. This was what opinion polls predicted and promoted by the media to a degree that frightened the Democrats from what was called a “sweeping red wave”, meaning that the electoral conditions were generally in favor of the Republicans. However, the results that have emerged so far constitute a strike to the opinion polls and the media, and some of those means were in favor of the Democrats, which expected a "sweeping red wave". Former President Trump traveled between states to support Republican candidates as if it were a presidential election campaign, and in return, the Democrats used campaigns carried out by current President Biden, and former Presidents such as Obama and Clinton in the hope of “stopping the red wave” that he thought was imminent. However, this wave did not occur rather the election result indicates that the Republican Party has secured control of the US House of Representatives with a simple majority in the 435-member House of Representatives. [It won at least 218 seats, according to estimates by CBS News, the BBC partner in the United States. (BBC, November 17, 2022)]. As for Democrats, [they celebrated on Sunday that the party retained a simple majority in the US Senate. The Democrats currently have 50 seats, in addition to the vote of US Vice President Kamala Harris, who presides over the Senate, compared to 49 for the Republicans, and one seat remains undecided in the Senate elections. Awaiting the run-off in the state of Georgia scheduled for the sixth of December, through which the Democrats can also strengthen the majority of them. (Al Jazeera, November 14, 2022)], and these results are contrary to all expectations and polls!
6- Through examination, we find that the states controlled by the Republicans, in which there is a Republican governor and the majority of the local representatives and senators in the state, are Republicans, have remained Republican without the Democratic Party being able to achieve any significant influence in them, with small exceptions such as the increase in the number of immigrants, especially from Latin America, for example Texas have made some of its representatives, they are few Democrats while sub control remains for the Republicans, and the opposite is true in those states that are controlled by the Democrats. This division appeared to be deep and well-established, while some states remained subject to conflict between the two parties, which they are called swing states, such as Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Perhaps the outcome of the elections, which contradicted all traditional expectations and in contrast to the opinion polls and the normal readings of the election process, indicates that the American states including Washington DC are no longer the united states as they were in the past, but the disintegration characteristic between them is taking its way towards permanence. On the other hand, the struggle of the two parties over governance and the conflicting interests of the major companies that stand behind the two parties may heat up sharply in the swing states, because the control of one party over any of them in these elections and the legislation of its new laws against the other party and the dissemination of a culture against it is drawing the state further away from the other party, which will not be accepted by the losing party. So, it is possible that these swing states will trigger sparks of violence, which will lead the country to more violence, thus confusing state foreign policy.
Indeed, it has been confused since today, and Saudi Arabia’s alignment with the Trump group regarding oil cuts was a dangerous indication of this trend. This deep division is one of the most important aspects that was revealed by these elections, as the two parties are almost equal in strength, and new circumstances such as the rise of prices did not affect their strength which strongly entrenched the nervous partisan view, and this is a dangerous matter with unexpected results. This partisan tension appeared clearly in the elections, as some of the candidates in the Trump group, even women, were campaigning with guns on their shoulders. Perhaps the coming days will reveal more divergence and the legitimacy of that divergence between states and an increasing immigration of non-whites from areas controlled by the Republican Party in which the theory of white supremacy is promoted.
7- Based on what happened in the elections, some lights can be shed on what will follow the results of the midterm Congressional elections as follows:
a. While America seems devoid of sane people who can bridge the gap between the two conflicting parties over power in Washington, and while the Americans show more tension in loyalty and political alignments, President Biden's administration, in the next two years, is on the verge of more obstacles laid by the "red" Republican states, as well as the House of Representatives. All of this will lead the country to more attention and preoccupation with its internal situation at the expense of its focus on foreign policy. As for Trump, it seemed that Donald Trump, before the elections, had imposed his control over the entire Republican Party, but after the election result was announced, it appeared that some of the candidates supported by Trump had fallen, but some of them succeeded, and this may create difficulty for Trump in the elections where he ran for the second presidency in America on behalf of the Republican Party.
b. Thus due to the major American companies that stand behind the Republican Party have significant international influence, which was revealed by Saudi Arabia’s decision to reduce oil production, the indications of the division of America’s international influence are likely to increase, which weakens America internationally, and this is something that cannot be underestimated. It appeared early when the contacts of former Secretary of State John Kerry, a Democrat, weakened the Trump administration's maximum pressure policies with Iran, and the Republicans responded to it during the Biden Democratic administration by provoking Saudi Arabia to reduce oil production, which weakened the pressure of the Biden administration on Russia... This makes America's international influence two influences, and divides some of its international interests into interests of the Republicans and those of the Democrats, while a circle of common strategic interests remains, such as combating Russia and China, but they can differ in the modalities and sub-policies to achieve this.
c. The Biden administration still has two full years to put pressure on Russia regarding Ukraine, and even if America opens the door to negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, America will continue to put pressure on Russia to give up all its Ukrainian gains in the short term, and to remain under the massive sanctions imposed on it until America achieves other gains outside the Ukrainian arena, such as ensuring that Russia's nuclear weapons do not pose a threat to America. It seems that this is the policy during the Biden period, and without Biden achieving these gains, Russia will remain isolated from the Western world and its subsidiaries, and its
economy will remain struggling and unable to stand.
d. By intimidating China into supporting Russia, the Biden administration succeeded in distancing China practically from Russia, regardless of the void statements made by the Chinese and Russians about the strength of their relationship. These statements that do not change reality. This expulsion process has not yet been completed, although Russia feels strongly that China has let it down and left it alone in the face of America and the NATO countries that provide great military support to Ukraine and impose heavy economic sanctions on Russia where as China is not offering any help to an ally that described their alliance before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine as "limitless."
e. Western European countries were afraid of any form of Trump's return to power, whether through his return to the presidency again or through his group's control on the Congress because he adopts a policy that says that the NATO is an outdated alliance, and that Europe's military power was weak and unable to confront Russia's expansionist policy, it was pleased with the return of the Biden administration to Europe. Also, the American gas companies embarrassed the Biden administration when it provided American gas as an alternative to Russian gas to Europe at prices four times higher than their American prices, and European countries protested. Likewise, President Biden himself criticized these companies, in which he said had achieved astronomical profits during the war in Ukraine, and threatened to impose additional taxes on their profits.
Of course, Biden was criticizing the rise in oil prices domestically, because the rise in prices in Europe does not concern him much. Rather, the American policy that Biden leads on the German axis leads to the dismantling of Europe, and it is similar to the policy of former President Trump on the “Brexit Britain” axis to strike at the unity of Europeans.
8- In conclusion, it has been shown how the midterm elections for the US Congress have many internal and external dimensions and implications, and how America's hegemony has made it a global event that most of the world’s countries care about as a matter of its impact on America's foreign policy.
This is how the states called superpowers are, and this is how the importance of their internal events appears, and when Allah permits the establishment of the Islamic State and the Islamic Ummah takes its path to influence the world, bringing them guidance, then any event, small or large among Muslims, will become of high political and media value to the Kufr (disbelieving) countries, which will be examined and analyzed to know its effects on them. The major Kufr countries today show interest about every small and big event in the Islamic world, and they show interest about Islamic movements, and their media raises some of these movements, which they call “moderate,” and tries to distance the Ummah from other sincere movements. These Kufr countries take into account a thousand times the sincere movements of the Muslims, so they monitor them and call upon their agents to stop them. This is before the establishment of the Islamic State, the Khilafah (Caliphate) State, so how will the disbelievers be if the Islamic Ummah and its mighty energies come under a sincere and conscious leadership working to satisfy Allah and serve the interests of its Ummah? Then the Ummah will return to its glory and the weakness of those so-called great countries will be revealed.
(وَسَيَعْلَمُ الَّذِينَ ظَلَمُوا أَيَّ مُنْقَلَبٍ يَنْقَلِبُون)
“The wrongdoers will come to know what ˹evil˺ end they will meet.” [Ash-Shu’ara 26:227]
25th Rabii’ al-Akhir 1444 AH
19 November 2022 CE
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