Answers to Questions
The Latest Developments on the Libyan and Sudanese Arenas
(Translated)

Question 1:

Haftar launched a surprise attack on western Libya, and he is continuing in this campaign ... Although things were almost quiet between him and Al-Sarraj, what has changed for this attack to take place, especially that the government of Al-Sarraj in the Libyan west is internationally recognized? What is the result of this attack? Thank you.

Answer:

1- The answer can be understood from what we issued on 20/2/2019, i.e. before the start of the Haftar attack by about 40 days, in which we gave a clear picture of the course of events in Libya, and I will mention some of what was stated:

[First: After the American agent’s, Haftar, takeover of Benghazi, he became in control of the Libyan east, and by resolving the conflict in his favour in the city of Dernah in mid-2018, Haftar tightened his grip on eastern Libya completely. By the transfer of battles to the Oil Crescent area, he has increased the heat of the conflict in Libya between America's agents, led by Haftar and the European agents led by Al-Sarraj in Tripoli. By being able to extend control of the Oil Crescent, his military power has now prevailed over the government of Al-Sarraj.

But his military strength, supported by the American agent, Sisi, is not entirely decisive to enable him from taking over west Libya, where the European countries themselves are pushing him away from, as well as from near the pro-European region in Algeria. This fear of Algeria and its interference is apparent in Haftar's statements: “Libyan Foreign Minister Tahir Saila renounced on Monday the "irresponsible statements" by General Khalifa Haftar, in which he threatened to "transfer the Libyan war to Algeria in seconds..." Haftar announced earlier that Algeria is "exploiting the security situation in Libya" and that "Algerian soldiers have crossed the Libyan border.” (France 24, 10/9/2018).

Second, this reality is because of the support of Egypt’s Sisi and behind him America for Haftar, which helped him control the east of Libya and the Oil Crescent area. The corresponding reality is represented by the government of Al-Sarraj and Algeria's readiness to defend it due to geographical proximity, and the Europeans who stand behind it. This reality and the opposite reality created a kind of draw, though the military upper hand is leaning towards Haftar because of the great American support that fits with its vision of a solution in Libya; that is, the opening of negotiations after the status of the Haftar became decisive or semi-decisive. But from the angle of the political center, the scale is still tilted in favour of Al-Sarraj. The European influence guarantees for him the control of Tripoli, the capital, and the weight of the political center of Europe. Thus, Haftar cannot progress and take the capital and cannot open serious negotiations with the government of Al-Sarraj to appear as equal parties.

These two predicaments to the two sides of the conflict in Libya have created a state of stalemate that neither side has been able to resolve. Therefore, the move to southern Libya was a way out for Haftar so that he could increase his military control and then the problem would be resolved with a stronger American influence than that of Europe. And this is what happened: “General Khalifa Haftar’s forces launched a large-scale military operation in the south of the country on Wednesday to "cleanse" it of armed groups, including elements of the extremist ISIS, and criminal gangs, according to the spokesman for the Libyan National Army.” (France 24, 17/1/2019).

In conclusion, Haftar with the great military support provided to him by America, especially through Egypt, has managed to divide Libya into two parts. He completely controlled the eastern part, and controlled the Oil Crescent, the heart of Libya's economy, and managed to penetrate the western part. America is directing him south to further his military and economic control. Therefore, he is in a stalemate and cannot penetrate western Libya, because of the fear of Algeria and the great European support for the Sarraj government.

America is pushing Haftar to achieve its other objectives, which increase the burden of European countries on the issue of immigration, and attack from another angle the French influence in neighboring countries starting with Chad.] End Quote.

It seems that Haftar exploited the events of Algeria and the Algerian army's preoccupation with it. So he launched his attack on the Libyan West. The attack began on 4/4/2019, after the summit of the crisis, with the resignation of Bouteflika by two days! This enabled him to move towards Tripoli in a remarkable way.

2- As for the result of this attack, it is not expected that the matter will be concluded by Haftar’s seizure of Tripoli for two reasons:

The First is that what was standing in the face of Haftar is Europe and Algeria ... Algeria is currently busy with its domestic conditions, and Europe is still able to apply political pressure: [European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini called on Monday for a humanitarian truce in Libya and return to negotiations ... (Sky News on 8/4/2019)], in addition Britain has submitted a draft resolution to the Security Council to stop the fighting: [Britain has submitted to the UN Security Council a draft resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire in Libya after forces loyal to the General Khalifa Haftar, the strong man in eastern Libya, an attack to control Tripoli, according to the text copy of the resolution, which obtained by AFP on Tuesday. In the draft resolution it states that the attack of the Libyan National Army led by Haftar "threatens the stability of Libya and the prospects of political dialogue sponsored by the United Nations and the comprehensive political solution to the crisis." ... (AFP on 16/4/2019)] ... Europe will use all its means to apply political pressure to stop the advance of Haftar, and even military intervention if necessary ... "The official Libyan national army spokesman Major General Ahmad Al-Mismari confirmed  that foreign pilots were flying aircrafts of the National Accord government forces in raids on Libyan sites ...” (Arab Net 13/04/2019)

Also the ["European Union Secretary of State Federica Mogherini on Tuesday urged EU countries to send warships back to the Mediterranean to allow the Operation Sophia to combat arms and oil smuggling in Libya." Mogherini said "the attack by Marshal Khalifa Haftar on Tripoli may turn into a permanent conflict with weapons that should not be used in Libya "... (Al-Madina site on 17/4/2019)] End quote. Although she demanded the return of warships to prevent the smuggling of weapons and oil, yet she introduced the subject of Haftar in the issue and his attack on Tripoli! It is not excluded that these warships will be used against Haftar’s attack in twisted ways under the pretext of arms and oil smuggling.

The Second is that America, which supports Haftar, especially through Sisi of Egypt, is aware of Europe's interest in Libya, and that Europe will exert every effort to stop Libya slipping away from its hands, through Haftar’s strikes and will not be satisfied by just getting out of the crisis. America is aware that Europe will resist Libya's exit from its own hands in all its different ways, and this is why America called for a negotiated solution. [The United States Embassy in Libya issued a statement on Monday reiterating that "there is no military solution to the conflict in Libya" and stressed through its official account on Twitter, that "the political solution is the only way to unite the country and provide a plan to provide security, stability and prosperity for all Libyans." (Sputnik Arabic on 8/4/2019)] End.

But it will delay until there is improvement of the status of Haftar by expanding the area of ​​his control, so his negotiating position is the strongest, and therefore America's share of the negotiated solution will be the strongest and richest with a relatively less share for Europe, especially Britain because most of the political class are its followers ... So it is expected that Haftar will cease to control all of Tripoli and other areas close to it, and then negotiations will begin and Haftar will be in a position of strength. This is what emerges from the American plans. These schemes may fail if Algeria can solve its problem quickly, and the Algerian army not only threaten but carry out these threats against Haftar, although the course of events in Algeria do not suggest a quick solution ... This makes solutions take time...

3- Thus, the Muslims of the two sides are killed by the government of Al-Sarraj and the Army of Haftar, not for the glory of the Deen of Allah or the revival of the worshipers of Allah, but to make America and Europe laugh at the people fighting for the benefit of others. After they perform their roles, their services will be terminated, unregretful. This is what the Kuffar do to their agents, yet the agents do not take heed, undeterred, and cannot see their tragic fate in this life and the abominable abode in the Hereafter.  Allah’s words, He is The Strong and Mighty, are truthful:

﴾ وَمَنْ كَانَ فِي هَذِهِ أَعْمَى فَهُوَ فِي الْآخِرَةِ أَعْمَى وَأَضَلُّ سَبِيلاً﴿

“And whoever is blind in this [life] will be blind in the Hereafter and more astray in way” [Al-Isra: 72].

Question 2:

What is happening in Sudan? Al-Bashir resigns or pushed to resign, and is held in a safe place ... and he is succeeded by Awad and after a day he resigns ... he is succeeded by Al-Burhan ... The commander of the rapid intervention forces declares that he will not be part of the military council, and the next day he becomes vice president of the military council! The opposition demands a full civilian rule, and the military council responds by saying it will form a civilian government, but with the sovereignty for the military council, and thus the parties are surrounded by confusion. What is the truth about what is going on? Thank you very much.

Answer:

1- My brother, if you followed what we issued, you would have had a clear, without any confusion. We have already issued an Answer to a Question on 4/3/2019, before the dismissal of Al-Bashir, i.e. more than a month before. The conclusion of the publication was as follows:

[In conclusion, there are two things worthy of consideration and pondering:

As for the first, the first thing imposed by America on its agents is to exert their efforts in the service of its interests. Al-Bashir exerted his effort in this, and he even betrayed his division and separated the South from Sudan. To this day, America continues to support Al-Bashir and it is in contact with him and his regime is evidenced to this, as we have shown. But if the protests continue and Al-Bashir cannot control it soon, he will fall from the eyes of America and will be unable to serve America’s interests, then it is likely that America will seek to change him, and perhaps the order of the withdrawal of some of its men from the government is to ride the wave of opposition, especially Merghani’s party that is pro-America. Perhaps all this is going on in this direction, i.e. the formation of the alternative, because any change to Al-Bashir requires the existence of the alternative that is acceptable to the people. America uses this method with its agents; it used it with Mubarak when he could not control the protests, and it ordered him to leave and he resigned and assigned Tantawi and his military council in his place. It is a style used by America, and before it orders its agent to leave, it needs an alternative, but it fears that the change happens before the replacement of the alternative, in case the sincere men get to power and become a thorn in its throat but rather a dagger in its chest. Keeping its agent Bashar so far is an example.

As for the second matter, what is feared is that the blood of those killed and wounded and those losses in the streets and public facilities will be lost. And the protests eventually lead to the replacement of an agent with another agent. And the man-made constitution remains in place in the country, killing souls and burdening people. This is what we warned of, because until today the protests do not adopt the demands of Islam and do not call for the implementation of Shariah law, by following a sincere righteous leadership working to resume the Islamic way of life by the establishment of the Khilafah Rashidah (rightly guided Caliphate). And so the political crisis will remain as it is, and may be even worse, and the economic crisis will remain the same, and may be worse. Allah’s saying is the clear truth:﴿فَمَنِ اتَّبَعَ هُدَايَ فَلَا يَضِلُّ وَلَا يَشْقَى * وَمَنْ أَعْرَضَ عَنْ ذِكْرِي فَإِنَّ لَهُ مَعِيشَةً ضَنْكاً﴾“...then whoever follows My guidance will neither go astray [in the world] nor suffer [in the Hereafter] * And whoever turns away from My remembrance - indeed, he will have a depressed life” [TA-HA: 123-124]

Allah Al-A’leem Al-Hakeem is Truthful(فَاعْتَبِرُوا يَا أُولِي الْأَبْصَارِ)“So take warning, O people of vision” (Al-Hashr: 2)] End of Quote.

2- What happened and what has been happening is almost exact to what was said in our publication. Al-Bashir could not end the protests, so he was thrown aside and the consequence for him was loss and humiliation! He was succeeded by Awad ibn Auf on Thursday and then on Friday he was thrown aside, as if he had come as a link! As well as the lack of his acceptance in the street, then came Abdul Fattah Al-Burhan. [He was appointed by Al-Bashir in February 2018 as Chief of Staff of the Ground Forces, and on February 26th, 2019, Al-Bashir decided to upgrade Abdul Fattah to the rank ofLieutenant General and he was appointed as Inspector General of the Armed forces then ... (Sudan Today website on 13/4/2019)]. That is, Al-Bashir appointed him as the General Inspector of the army during the protests! He is the one who negotiated the sit-ins with the protestors on Friday morning 12/4/2019 and became president of the military council on Friday evening, according to Ibn Awaf’s declaration, which led to his stepping down as president of the military council after holding the post for one day. Al-Burhan has taken some steps to ease the tension:

[The head of the Sudanese Transitional Military Council, Abdul Fattah Al-Burhan, has been keen on courting the demonstrators. He announced in his first statement the formation of a military council to represent the sovereignty of the state and an agreed civilian government to run the country during the next phase, that the curfew is cancelled and the release of sentenced prisoners. Khartoum, the statement 14/4/2019), and then appointed the commander of the rapid support forces, Mohammad Hamdan Daglo as his deputy. What is strange is that Daglo said on Thursday, 11/4/2019 that he would not participate in the military council, and the next day he was a deputy of the council! He said in his statement: "I would like to announce to the general Sudanese people that as a commander of the rapid support forces, I have apologized for participating in the military council since 11 April 2019. We will remain part of the armed forces and work for the unity of the country, respect for human rights and protection of the Sudanese people."  (ART 12/4/2019)].

But the next day he became vice-president of the military council! [The Transitional Military Council in Sudan on Saturday evening appointed the head of the rapid support forces Mohammad Hamdan Daglo as deputy chairman of the Transitional Council ... (Al-Marsad on Sunday, 14/4/2019)], knowing that this man was one of the pillars of Al-Bashir’s regime, and seems to remain a pillar in the new regime. After only one day of his appointment, he warmly met and welcomed the Charge d'Affaires of the US Embassy: [The deputy chairman of the Transitional Military Council, Lieutenant General Mohammad Hamdan Daglo met on Sunday, at the Republican Palace with the Charge d'Affaires of the US Embassy in Khartoum, Stephen Kotsis. Doglo briefed the American diplomat on "The situation and developments in the country, and the reasons that led to the formation of the Transitional Military Council, and the steps taken to maintain the security and stability of the Sudan," according to SUNA agency. And according to the Agency, the US Charge d'Affaires welcomed the role of the Military Council in achieving stability, and stressed the need for continued cooperation between the two sides, the Sudanese-American Relations ... (24 website, 14/4/2019)].

3- To help stabilize the status quo, America has hinted at the possibility of lifting sanctions: [A US State Department official said that the United States would consider new ways to remove Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism if it saw a fundamental change in its government and a commitment not to support terrorism. (Al-Bayan website, quoting Reuters on 17/4/2019)].

Then America's agents followed in support of the new situation:

- [Sisi called the President of the Military Council in Sudan: The Egyptian President assured the President of the Transitional Military Council in Sudan Lieutenant General Abdul Fattah Al-Burhan, of Egypt's full support for the security and stability of Sudan ... (News of the Arab world on 16/4/2019)]. End quote.

[Al-Yowm As-Sabi’ on 17/4/2019: A high-level Egyptian delegation visits Khartoum to emphasize the support of the Sudanese people's choices: A high-ranking Egyptian delegation will visit the State of Sudan to confirm Egypt's full support ... (Al-Yowm As-Sabi’ on 17/4/2019)].End quote.

- [Abu Dhabi-Sky News Arabiya: The Council of Ministers of Saudi Arabia confirmed its support on Tuesday for the Sudanese people's views on the future and the decisions taken by the Transitional Military Council in Sudan, according to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) ... (Al Watan website on 16/4/2019)].End quote.