بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

Answer to Question

Turkey and its Relationship to its Neighbours

Question:

The Turkish Prime Minister on 13/07/2016 stated that Turkey will restore normal relations with Syria. “Zaman-Arabic” published on 13/07/2016 the following: “The Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim announced that Turkey will seek to restore normal relations with Syria” … So what is the motive behind this sudden Turkish policy change from one opposite to another in relation to Syria? Is it Turkish-Syrian reconciliation? Or is it the US policy which is influencing the Turkish policy? Jazaakallahu Khairan.

Answer:

In order to answer the mentioned issues clearly we shall examine the following matters:

Firstly: The talk about Turkish-Russian reconciliation began after Binali Yildirim took over the Prime Minister post and Davultoglu was sacked/resigned. It was reported in the Turkey Post (04/06/2016), after around ten days of Erdogan appointing him on 22/05/2016 as Prime Minister, “Binali announced that the new government will continue its efforts to normalise relations with Russia and will intensify cooperation with Iran. That is in the case where it was mentioned in the text of the programme: “Turkey will continue to work towards the normalisation of relations with Russia through dialogue”.” Following that, the communications sped up during the month of June 2016, then the matters began to unfold in a dubious and strange manner in terms of an eye catching hastiness and inconsistency in statements!  That was as follows:

A – After Turkey had been saying that the Russian aircraft had violated its airspace and as such does not deserve an apology, it then presented the apology on 27/06/2016: “The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “The Turkish president expressed sympathy and deep condolences to the family of the killed pilot, just as he offered his apology.” Adding that Erdogan had said that: “He will do all that he can to restore traditional warm relations between Turkey and Russia.”” (Al-Arabiya News Network, 27/06/2016).

B – And after Putin had been the enemy who bombs the people and particularly the Turkmen mountain, discussion with him has come to be within warm atmospheres. Erdogan called Putin on 29/06/2016 and “According to sources in the Turkish presidency, the phone call took place within extremely warm atmospheres” (Al-Arabiyah Al-Jadeed, 29/06/2016) …

C – And after Turkey had differed with Russia in relation to classifying the armed movements inside Syria, the two states have come to be in agreement and harmony (… In the meeting between Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia, and the Turkish foreign minister on 01/07/2016 in Sochi, the subject of Syria was amongst the most important subjects of reconciliation between the two countries, and that they are both agreed upon the war against terrorism as “Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied that there are any disagreements between Moscow and Ankara about classifying the terrorists in Syria, confirming the resumption of bilateral cooperation in the area of fighting terrorism) (Russia Today 01/07/2016).

And Turkey’s agreement with Russia about the classification of “Terrorist groups” in Syria is an eye catching matter, in light of the declared stances of Turkey through the years in respect to supporting the Syrian opposition. This is therefore a new issue that had not existed before.

D – Then there was the haste in respect to convening the summit between the two presidents, Putin of Russia and Erdogan of Turkey set to be held during the G20 Summit convened in China in September 2016. Then there was the announcement of the Turkish foreign minister about making the summit between the two presidents earlier and that it could be held during August in Russia. “Interfax news agency attributed to the minister – the Turkish Foreign Minister – the statement that Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Erdogan will meet during August in Sochi. And from his side, the Russian foreign minister said: We hope for there to be communications between both the Russian and Turkish armies in regards to Syria.” (Al-Arabiya.net, 02/07/2016)

E – “Following the phone call between the Russian President Vladimir Putin with his Turkish counterpart, the Russian president ordered for the sanctions to be lifted from Turkey in the Tourism sector and he ordered the normalisation of trade relations between the two countries. Putin requested from his Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev to prepare suggestions related to the necessary legal adjustments that will form the basis of the normalisation.” (Russia Today, 11/07/2016).

2 – As for the inconsistency in statements:

A – The Turkish foreign minister’s announcement on 04/07/2016 that his country does not mind Russia using its Incirlik Airbase in Adana to bomb “terrorists in Syria”. Following that the denial of Turkey was exorbitant (And at the question: Is it possible for Russian planes to use Incirlik Airbase, the foreign minister said: “I have not made any comment indicating that Russian aircraft are coming to the base””. (Al Jazeera.net, 04/07/2016). 

B – Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim announce the readiness of his country to compensate Russia for the harm that resulted from bringing down the Russian war aircraft “S-24”. The Turkish president Recep Tayep Erdogan had apologised to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about the incident and had called for a return to Russian-Turkish relations to what they had been previously. (Al-Ghad, 28/06/2016). That was then followed by denial, “In the meantime, the Turkish Prime Minister Benali Yildirim rescinded his statements about paying compensation to Russia for the incident. And the media sources reported from Yildirim that “Compensating Russia is not upon the table”. That came after televised statements in which he said that Ankara was prepared to offer compensation for the incident that blew up relations between the two countries.” (BBC, 28/06/2016). Then there came that which resembles compensation, “The mayor of the coastal Kemer resort proposed granting a home to the family of the slain pilot during a meeting with the Russian consul general in the city of Antalya which took place earlier on Friday.” (Russia Today, 01/07/2016).

Secondly: By considering all of that it is possible to comprehend the motive behind all of these matters … This hastiness and inconsistency indicates that this behaviour is not due to local (internal) factors otherwise this transition from one opposite to another with such speed and bewildering strangeness would not have taken place. Rather, this haste and inconsistency guides to an external matter that had to be implemented due to a vital interest that the one commanding it wants to be accomplished… As for who the one who is commanding this matter and what this interest is? Then the answer is America and the interest is the secular political solution with the Syrian regime. The evidences for that are as follows:

1 – America has expended its effort to prop up the Syrian regime and subdue and compel the revolutionaries to negotiate with the regime in order to form a joint government alongside it upon the secular basis. That was undertaken via Iran, its party (in Lebanon) and its militias however that failed… Then this role was taken by Russia, its missiles, shells and warships but this also failed… Then it was via Saudi through the formation of a negotiating delegation that included some of the armed groups and despite that these attempts did not succeed… America now believes that the Turkish role is capable of succeeding where the previous means failed.

2 – The main heading for the Turkish-Russian reconciliation was Syria as the two sides both emphasised the need for a solution to the Syrian crisis in their new meetings and communications in addition to the declaration that there was no disagreement between them in regards to the classification of “terrorist groups”: (… In the meeting between Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia, and the Turkish foreign minister on 01/07/2016 in Sochi, the subject of Syria was amongst the most important subjects of reconciliation between the two countries, and that they are both agreed upon the war against terrorism as (The foreign minister Sergei Lavrov denied that there are any disagreements between Moscow and Ankara about classifying the terrorists in Syria, confirming the resumption of bilateral cooperation in the area of fighting terrorism.” (Russia Today 01/07/2016) And “the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, expressed his hope that the dialogue with Ankara would be distinguished by franker speech about resolving the Syrian crisis, and that’s following the normalisation of Russian-Turkish relations. And the “Russia Today” news agency reported from Lavrov that he said: “We hope that that will help us to look for shared viewpoints to resolve the Syrian crisis with greater effectiveness…” And he pointed to, when commenting upon his last meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, last month, that the dialogue during the meeting was of a frank nature adding: “We will consult with greater frankness to arrive to agreements in relation to the application of the international Security Council’s resolutions and the international community, to support Syria” (An-Naba’ Al-Arabiy, 12/07/2016).

3 – In extremely eye-catching statements, revealing the depth of the Turkish decay, Turkey announced that it will seek to expand its network of friends to include the Syrian regime: “The Turkish Prime Minister Benali Yildirim said that solving the Syrian crisis is possible however everyone must make the necessary sacrifices in respect to this. Yildirim added that “Our strategic partners and our partners in the international coalition must work to bandage the Syrian wound”. And he revealed that Turkey will work to strengthen the security sphere surrounding it and expand its network of friends, pointing in this regard to efforts to develop Turkey’s relationships with everyone including Russia, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, “Israel”, the United States and the EU states”. (Al-Jazeera.net, 05/07/2016) … And after the statement had been general he followed that on 13/07/2016 with a clear statement in regards to normalisation with the Syrian regime. The (Turkish) ‘Zaman Al-Arabiy’ Newspaper mentioned on 13/07/2016 that: “The Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim announced that Turkey will seek to restore normal relations with Syria) and other media sources reported this news including Reuters and Al-Arabiya (news network).”

Thirdly: America wants the current Turkish role to apply pressure forcefully upon the Syrian opposition to bring it back to the Geneva path and peaceful solution. That includes making the opposition cease “hostile actions” in Syria according to the Russian-American declaration on 27/02/2016… And accompanied by the threat to abandon the Syrian opposition if they refuse to fall in line with the negotiating path through manifesting the Turkish-Russian cooperation: “The Russian foreign minister said: We hope for communications to be undertaken between the Russian and Turkish armies in respect to Syria.” (Al-Arabiyah.net, 02/07/2016) … And that Turkey will no longer oppose the Russian intervention in Syria, because Turkey is exposed to terrorist acts and the Syrian opposition must be involved in combatting “terrorist groups” as America, Russia and Turkey want… This Turkish threat to the Syrian opposition has an influence upon that part of the opposition that still hopes to receive assistance from Turkey, who have believed that Erdogan will never permit a second (or repeat) Hama to take place, and have kept their relations tied to Turkey. America hopes that these groups will be pushed into negotiating with the regime… And it is not inconceivable for Turkey, within its pressurising styles, to go beyond the political means to utilise military means under the pretext that it is fighting the terrorism of the IS organisation whilst it is not separated and distinguishable from the other armed opposition groups i.e. the very same argument and pretext utilised by Russia when it bombs the opposition! The statement of the Russian foreign minister about communications between the Russian and Turkish armies indicates to this potential possibility…

Fourthly: Obama wants to act just as his Democrat predecessor Clinton acted when he expended his effort in the last year of his tenure to gather the PLO and the Jews for a decisive negotiated solution for the Palestinian issue. Even though he failed in that he was nevertheless able to bring together Abu Ammar and Ehud Barack… And now Obama is expending effort to bring together the opposition and the regime for a negotiated solution with the regime so it can be said that he accomplished something worthwhile at the end of his tenure. The difference between Clinton’s attempt and Obama’s is that in the first his efforts were manifest ahead of his agents whilst Obama works with his agents and tools whilst his efforts are concealed behind them! America, in his time in office has shown more of a reliance upon its subordinates; and so after Iran and its followers and after Russia, whilst at the same time America’s dilemma in Syria has been renewed, America has now instructed Erdogan to reconcile with Russia and that is to encourage and facilitate the bombing of the revolutionaries in Syria, to increase the pressure upon them so push them to negotiate with the regime.

Fifthly: Therefore, the spur that drove Turkey to reconcile with Russia and to make its turnaround which increases the tension in Syria and opens it to negotiations with Assad’s regime, represents no more than the urgent American policy to the situations in Syria. So after the Iranian and Russian interventions led to its dilemma in respect to Syria, America rushed to push Turkey towards the Iranian and Russian side in order to preserve and safeguard the American intrigue and influence in Syria in addition to eliminating the Islamic nature of the Syrian revolution… The Turkish regime’s disclosure in this manner in respect to it now cooperating with Russia which has not ceased bombing Halab (Aleppo), its surroundings and other Syrian regions, this disclosure must open the sight of those who have been misled and have been smitten by Erdogan and his regime, so that they separate from him and take themselves away from the conspiracies of the American disbelievers and their assistants from amongst the rulers of Turkey. This disclosure has revealed clearly the falsity and forgery of the deceitful statements made in support of the Syrian revolution and about providing support to Hama and Halab or against the Russian aggression and so on… Then it began to be scattered by the winds and has backfired against its owner! This is not all, but rather it has resumed warm relations with the Jewish entity, the usurper of the blessed Al-Aqsa and its blessed surrounding lands: (Ankara/Al-Quds Reuters – Turkey and Israel signed an agreement on Tuesday to restore relations between them after a cut in ties that lasted six years… Relations were cut between Israel and Turkey after an attack by Israeli naval soldiers upon a ship carrying Turkish activists attempting to break the siege enforced upon the Gaza Strip in May 2010, which led to the killing of ten of them… In accordance to the dictates of the agreement the naval siege will continue upon the Gaza Strip in spite of the Turkish request for it to be lifted with the guarantee of the continuous supply of humanitarian assistance to the Strip via the Israeli ports.