بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Answer to Question
The American-European Conflict in Sudan
It is noted that the European officials have trickled into Sudan and declared support for the Hamdouk government. On 16/9/2019, the French Foreign Minister arrived in Khartoum, met with the Prime Minister of Sudan, Abdallah Hamdouk, and declared € 60 million to support Sudan, and that it will work to remove Sudan from the Terrorism list. The German Foreign Ministry also arrived and declared the same about the Terrorism list...
Is this communication and support is to strengthen the Forces of Freedom and Change in the face of the army? Or for other purposes? Sudan's Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdouk announced on 5/9/2019 the formation of the first government since Bashir was ousted in April (the government will operate under a three-year power-sharing agreement signed last month between the army and civilians... France 24, 5/9/2019) Is the power-sharing agreement expected to be stable or tensions will return once more?
To clarify the answer we review the following:
1- The Forces of Freedom and Change, with the help of Britain, its media and its agents in the region, were able to hijack the revolution from the people who revolted against injustice, hunger, deprivation and corruption, and climbed on their backs, and did not put any radical solution to address these issues, but instead it offered solutions from the same corrupt reality. Negotiations then took place between the pro-American military council and its agents, and between the European backed the Forces of Freedom and Change. An agreement was signed between them on the constitutional document on 17/8/2019... And so the protestors’ sacrifices were in vain. The agreement was a continuation of the corrupt reality on the foundations of Western secular anti-Islam and its rules! The agreement between the Military Council and the Forces of Freedom and Change included the formation of an 11-member 5+5 sovereign council as well as an independent civilian person to be agreed upon by the parties during a transitional period of 39 months.
The agreement also stipulated that the Military Council would assume the first term for a period of 21 months, and the Forces of Freedom and Change will then assume for 18 months. The transitional period will be followed by general elections and the establishment of a legislative council. The agreement stipulated that the selection of the ministers of defense and interior should be the prerogative of the military section of the Sovereignty Council, i.e., this section would retain dominance by the army, security and intelligence, besides heading the Sovereign Council in the first period.
2- Thus, the powers of the army in power include elements of force. There are five members of the army in the council and two in the cabinet (the interior and defense ministers). One of them is General Jamal al-Din Omar, the Minister of Defense of the Transitional Government, he is one of the oldest armed forces officers currently present in military service. General Jamal al-Din Omar was a close friend of the former defense minister, Awad bin Auf, who had worked together for a long time in the Military Intelligence Service, and his colleagues at the Military Academy was Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Director of the General Intelligence, Abu Bakr Dumblab, and Omar Zain al-Abideen. This means that the old regime will be strongly present in the transitional period, and will put many obstacles and barriers to the achievement of the objectives of the civilian government of Europe "Britain"... And thus America's side will remain stronger..
3- Abdullah Hamdouk, who holds a master's and doctorate in economics from the British University of Manchester and was nominated by the Forces for Freedom and Change as Prime Minister on 20/8/2019 and effective executive powers were given to the Council of Ministers also. On 5/9/2019, the formation of a government that is supposed to lead the transition period for 39 months was announced. Thus, the Prime Minister will be loyal to Britain and Europe, and will act in the European direction, in contrast to the Chairman of the Sovereign Council and the Army Commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and his deputy commander of the Rapid Support Forces Mohammed bin Hamdan Daglo and with them the pro-American soldiers who will work in the American direction.
4- The rule in Sudan according to the constitutional document is almost composed of two teams with varying powers and conflicting foreign loyalties, and this will be reflected in their work in solving the problems of people and the safety of their lives. Each will be interested in serving the direction that they follow, and each will wait for a chance to exclude the other by internal and external means. The establishment of such councils in Sudan is known to have been established only in connection with the transitional periods and crises... until the army can arrange matters of the state, and dissolve the council and impose a president for the country from the army officers. This is clear from the first Sovereign Council on 26/12/1955 that took power after Sudan’s “independence” on 1/1/1956. It continued until 17/11/1958, when Lieutenant General Ibrahim Aboud turned against it... and to the coup of Nimeiri in 1969, then the coup of Omar Al-Bashir on 30/6/1989... Then the overthrow of Al-Bashir and the formation of the Sovereign Council... These councils have always been linked to the rounds of conflict between America and Britain, and each of them was keen to form a government alone, if it was unable, then it compromised with the other, until it gets a chance to exclude it, as was the case in the past when America was silent about the premiership of the pro-British Sadiq al-Mahdi, in order to absorb the popular movements then and when it managed to order its men in the army, it came with the coup of Al-Bashir in 1989.
And, when Al-Bashir could not control the popular movements, it removed him as it did with his predecessors, Nimeiri and Mubarak and others without regarding their services! After Al-Bashir, America came with the Military Council... And now the game is repeated again in the current Sovereign Council, so the pro-American military have to agree with the English agents of the Forces of Freedom and Change, to absorb the anger of the people who the Forces of Freedom and Change were capable of riding its wave. They agreed to involve the Forces of Freedom and Change in government, but this time is not the same as the previous time, the army did not hand over the whole government as it did at the time of Sadiq al-Mahdi, but rather remained as its head under the name of the Sovereign Council, and held on to some sensitive and key positions in government, even if other influential powers were given to the government. The Sovereign Council that is leading the country, half of it is made up of the army and is led by the commander of the army Al-Burhan for 21 months, and the ministers of defense and interior are chosen from the army to ensure hegemony in terms of military and security authority.
5- What is expected? America and Britain will not coexist quietly. Their interests are different and their local tools follow, so both sides will work to abort the movements of the other! By following up the current events, studying their related issues and examining statements externally and locally, especially of American and European officials, we can work out the likely means that both sides will use to harass its opponent and then exclude it from power, as follows:
As for the military team, it will deliberately harass the government on the economic side; one of the important reasons for the movement of people against Al-Bashir was the poor economic situation. The current government promised people to improve the economic situation, if it fails then this will move the people again and it will be an opportunity for the military to exclude the Forces of Freedom and Change i.e. the exclusion of the European role from Sudan... and the control factors of the economy are in the hands of America as follows:
a- Hamdouk said in a press conference with the German Foreign Minister: ("The economic challenge for Sudan is a big challenge... the issue of inflation and the exchange rate of the national currency and restoring confidence to the banking system", adding: "Unless there are understandings with Washington on the removal of Sudan from the Terrorism list, there will continue to be difficulties,'' Anadolu, Reuters, 3/9/2019). Hamdouk said: ("The normalization of our relations with Washington is our first priority after the removal of obstacles by the demise of the former regime" Anadolu, 8/9/2019) and therefore the government needs America to lift the sanctions.
b- America began to threaten of becoming hard line in lifting the sanctions. After the signing of the constitutional document, which its agents were forced to sign to calm the street, America began to retreat from the support of Sudan. America’s charge d'affaires in Khartoum whose term has ended, informed senior Sudanese figures that the issue of lifting sanctions on Sudan will not be resolved soon because the decision is in the hands of the Congress and not the Trump administration, according to Elaph Newspaper published on Wednesday 04/09/2019. I.e. the US became hard line to use sanctions as a pressure card on the government of Hamdouk, although America had promised Al-Burhan in the beginning of the lifting the sanctions. Al-Burhan said at the time, ("There are continuing measures on the sanctions file since the old regime, we have sent legal experts to discuss this issue with the US administration... America promised to remove Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism after the completion of the peace process and we believe that the time is right. He said: "The agreement may be signed this weekend after the drafting of the Transitional Governance Structures”... Middle East 7/7/2019). America’s charge d'affaires in Khartoum Steven Koutsis on 7/7/2019 pointed out that (the issue of removing Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism is imminent... Gulf Online on 7/7/2019).
c- International Monetary Institutions (IMF and the World Bank) can only provide loans to Sudan with the permission of America. This is another pressure card in the hands of America and its team inside. Also, because Sudan remains on the US terrorism lists, this deprives it of the use of the American international remittance system, which one of the biggest obstacles to Sudan's international trade, where its transactions are inseparable from the dollar.
As for Europe, and therefore The Forces of Freedom and Change, it is expected that it will follow two lines: first, the reliance on Europe in dealing with "the issue of sanctions and America’s delay in lifting sanctions," and then the economic pressure as a result... The second is to harass the military and security forces in financial budget allocations.
First, Europe "and therefore the Forces of Freedom and Change realize the great impact of sanctions on Sudan's economy, as well as the fact that America will continue in this pressure, therefore it is working to support the Sudanese government in the United Nations and with financial support... Germany prepared to help them; the Foreign Minister Haikou Mas said ("his country will address the issue of removing Sudan from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism at the UN General Assembly to be held this month"... Anadolu 8/9/2019). The French Foreign Minister (Le Drian) visited Khartoum on 16/9/2019, and met with its President Abdullah Hamdouk, and stated: (“I told the Prime Minister we will work with our European partners to remove Sudan from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism” he added: "France will provide support to Sudan with the amount of 60 million Euros. 15 million Euros will be paid immediately for this period," Sudanese Al-Rakouba webpage 16/9/2019). This shows the support for the Forces of Freedom and Change and the government of Hamdouk.
- The second includes two things: reducing the budget allocations of the army, and reform of the security services. Hamdouk’s statement clearly indicate this:
- As for the budget, Hamdouk called for “a sharp reduction in military spending... He added that" military spending consumes up to 80% of the state budget" (Arabic Post 26/8/2019), arguing that signing peace agreements with the armed movements deployed in the country must lead to a "return from peace", i.e. to raise a lot of military expenditures from the Sudan’s budget for the army and security.
As for the reform of the security services, the current structure of the security services and the army in Sudan, especially the situation of the Rapid Support Forces, was designed by the regime of al-Bashir, and it exercised the worst brutality on the Sudanese protestors. Thus, there was a justification for the Forces of Freedom and Change to demand the restructuring of these organs to ensure state control over them and subject them to the law, (Hamdouk revealed that the Rapid Support Forces will be integrated into the security services in the process of restructuring, and a national army will be established for the country. He added that his government is determined to restructure the security apparatus, including the Rapid Support and the armies of all armed movements, in order to build a strong national army. Al Jazeera Net 11/9/2019).
6- It seems that the chances of Europe's efforts to support the Forces of Freedom and Change are less successful than those of America and its followers due to the following points:
- As for European support, it does not solve the problem. If America does not remove Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, it will suffer difficulties, as the Prime Minister himself said. It relies on foreign aid, that is, an Interest-based loan that ravages the country and investors, and cannot create an industrial coup and does not develop its economic resources. It is of the same corrupt reality and far from the ideology and the true Deen of the Ummah that a system emanates from; a system that addresses all the problems of life, including the Islamic economic system, and will revive the country. The economic aspect was one of the most important reasons for the uprising against Al-Bashir's rule as many people suffer poverty, deprivation, unemployment and high prices.
- As for the reduction of the army’s budget, the army has for decades obtained the lion's share of the budget of Sudan, and is expected to resist the reduction strongly in various ways, to justify keeping the largest expenses... As for the financial corruption, both parties are not free of it, so how will any of them solve it?! Financial corruption is only addressed by men who fear Allah and govern by Islam in all its rules and not under man-made system.
- As for the security services, America focuses on the person of Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo (Himaidti), commander of the Rapid Support Forces, who increased his media statements and foreign visits to Egypt and Saudi Arabia in particular. It seems like he is America's first choice for the future of Sudan, Himaidti, the deputy chairman of the Sovereignty Council, will be stubbornly resistant to any change in the Rapid Support Forces, which according to some sources it takes approximately 25% of the budget of the army. Thus, the efforts of the government of Hamdouk to restructure the security forces in Sudan directly collide with the strong American man in Sudan, Himaidti!
7- Therefore, the political or economic situation in Sudan is not expected to stabilize during the transitional period:
- As for political instability, it is found in a country as long as there is international conflict, armed by its local tools. This is evident from the movements of the international envoys and their ambassadors in Sudan, and from their statements, their actual actions and their meetings with local officials as shown above. Therefore, stability will be absent, and it is likely that instability would result in a military coup during the transitional period with the support of America, unless the people of Sudan realized this reality and they support Allah (swt) by eradicating the colonized kuffar from their roots whoever they are, and their associates... And they establish the Islamic rule, the Khilafah Rashida (Righteous Caliphate) on the method of Prophethood. They will be victorious and settle safely in their homes and return as Allah wanted them to be:
(خَيْرَ أُمَّةٍ أُخْرِجَتْ لِلنَّاسِ) “The Best Nation bought to mankind” [Al-i-Imran: 110].
- As for economic instability, it is the inevitable result of colonial intervention in the country, you do not reap the grapes from thorns! South Sudan is separated and the oil wealth was lost by the order of America to the ruler who betrayed the Ummah in that. Sudan, having been described as Africa’s food basket, its people became in extreme poverty because their dependence is on interest-based loans, and the land was left without the help for farmers and marketing their products so they in turn abandoned it. Minerals wealth was left to foreign investment and so on... And then, more importantly, Islam was excluded from power and the economic system in Islam was neglected, which is legislated by Allah (swt) and the corrupt man-made system is implemented, how then will there be an economic stability? Rather, there will be hardship of living, and Allah Al-Aziz Al-Hakim, is the Truthful who says:
(فَمَنِ اتَّبَعَ هُدَايَ فَلَا يَضِلُّ وَلَا يَشْقَى * وَمَنْ أَعْرَضَ عَنْ ذِكْرِي فَإِنَّ لَهُ مَعِيشَةً ضَنْكاً)
“Then whoever follows My guidance will neither go astray [in the world] nor suffer [in the Hereafter] * And whoever turns away from My remembrance - indeed, he will have a depressed life” [Ta-Ha: 123-124].
24 Muharram Al-Haram 1441 AH
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